I doubt anyone really knows. They’ve obviously made recent changes in the operating parameters of the erbium-class lasers, as well as some cosmetic ones … not sure what they could change next that would be beneficial.

If somebody discovers a new wavelength that works faster with no discomfort, that might trash the erbiums.

As long as mine keeps running and Hoya keeps making tips, I’m good to go.

It’s similar to the warranty on a car. It favors the manufacterer in the early part of the ownership curve. As you go farther out in time, about when the warranty expires, mechanical things start to breakdown and the extended warranty can be very helpful.
In my experience with the erbrium by Hoya, I just had to have a new bench placed in the laser. That is the heart of the unit where the beam is generated. Cost is about &#367500. Hoya came out to my office to repair it. Tech went through the entire unit and checked all the stuff that they service and said that if I contiunued to shut down that the bench would need to be replaced. It did continue to shut down, Hoya replaced the bench and went through the laser a second time. Totally tuning me up. All this was covered under the warranty at 5 years out. If I just put the cost of the warranty in an account I would have come out ahead when I needed to pay up. But human nature being what it is, I didn’t. The lesson is that it can be very costly if you don’t have coverage. But if you can affort to take the hit, the warranty programs for these lasers can be costly.
Also, as the analogy of the car goes. They say stuff like, this Benz will go 200 K miles. Maybe the motor will, but the AC doesn’t, or the window motors don’t go that long without repair. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Nick